Michael Bridgman

The USD has declined during July against the majors and the GBP is trying to close and stay above 1.3150.

Although the pair struggled in the first half of the U.K. session to get and stay above its Asian session highs, it moved higher after  a double bottom in the U.S. session overlap.  Once the pair was above the 1.3100 figure, it found support at 1.3115 before moving higher.  Our daily target was 1.3135. Price fell just shy of our target and we gave back about 16 pips as sellers entered before our profit stop was hit.

Although it’s been a tough July for the USD – U.S. exporters won’t be complaining.

The coming week’s event risks include the closely watched Non-Farm Employment number on Friday as a gauge of the world’s largest economy. The Bank of England’s rate decision and accompanying press conference on Thursday will also be very important. China’s manufacturing data and Australia’s rate decision begin the week and Euro zone inflation are all significant this coming week.

Good luck with your trading!

 

 

After a disappointing and dovish sounding FED statement yesterday – the USD moved down.  Today it strengthened.

As the U.S. session got underway after the economic news releases today,the GBPUSD made a familiar reversal setup.  A short was taken risking 16 pips for a potential 68 pips to our daily target. As price moved down vertically… a candle with a long lower wick formed within 5 or 6 pips of our target.  A long lower wick is usually followed by a move up as buyers have begun to enter…especially after a vertical move down.  As we were so close to our daily target and not wanting to give back pips to a reversal wave…we closed the trade at the European close.

Friday we will have Advance GDP numbers reported for Canada and U.S.

Good luck with your trading!

 

 

The USD last week was under pressure due to negative political headlines as opposed to negative economic surprises.  Increasing 10 year German bond yields this year have helped propel the Euro higher versus sideways and declining U.S. 10 year yields which have weighed on the USD.

The EURUSD was quiet in the early half of the U.K. session and then began to rise as the U.S. traders came online.  Price jumped higher and then began to roll over.  As price began to pull back, a short was taken risking 15 pips for a potential 67 pips to our daily target.  With 90 minutes left in the UK/US overlap, we didn’t expect to get to our daily target… but price moved quickly down completing its pattern where we exited as it bounced just before the end of our session.

With any countertrend trade it’s always a good idea to take smaller position sizing and keep stops tight.

Tomorrow the FED is not expected to announce any new policy measures.  The market has also cooled considerably on when the next rate hike is to be expected.

The Aussie dollar will be closely watched with RBA Governor Lowe’s speech on Wednesday.

Good luck with your trading!

Despite traders focused on the BoJ outlook and ECB President Mario Draghi’s attempts to sound dovish to keep the Euro lower, it was political headlines in the U.S. that sank the USD today.  Headlines come and go, but with the continued animosity between the (“fake news”) media and President Trump, the USD didn’t fare well today.

A short setup in the trending USDCAD attracted our attention while most eyes were on the EUR and the JPY.

It’s always refreshing when a trade moves quickly to one’s target without a retracement wave along the way.

Note: The EUR has solid upward momentum at the moment and above 1.1800 will be technically very significant.  Continue to be vigilant of price activity around the figures.

Good luck with your trading!

 

 

It was a fairly subdued session for the majors and the USD was a bit stronger today after yesterday’s selloff.

The USDCAD which has been trending downward, continued today helped by oil climbing a bit higher and a larger than anticipated draw down in crude oil inventories.

When price was unable to sustain above its Asian high, a short was taken risking 18 pips for a potential 108 pips to our daily target which was 1.2531.

Price moved down and tested its Asian session range before it broke lower just in advance of the U.S. open.  With a the crude oil inventories release pending, we locked in some profit and continued to do so…getting closed out of the trade when it bounced up from yesterday’s low.

The EUR is slightly softer today with some macro account profit taking in advance of Mario Draghi speaking tomorrow.  It could go either way from here.  Keep an eye on the JPY pairs too for the markets reaction to the Bank of Japan’s outlook due later today.

Good luck with your trading!

 

The USD saw heavy selling as President Trump’s healthcare bill failed to get Senate approval, casting doubt for now on his ability to get the stimulus plans implemented.

The Asian session saw heavy selling in the USDJPY with a much larger move than usual for the pair.  As the UK session got underway price tested but was unable to stay above yesterday’s low and began to sell off again.  A short was taken risking 9 pips for a potential 49 pips to our daily target.  Price moved down to test its Asian session lows in advance of the U.S. session opening.  We chose to lock in 10 pips and anticipated heavier volume as the U.S. traders began their session.  Price moved down to our target level and we exited the trade.

If the USD continues to be weak and UST yields continue to move down, watch for the EUR to rise and test 1.1600 and see how it reacts to the April 2016 high.

Be aware of the potential volatility due to the BOJ statement tomorrow and the ECB’s Draghi speaking on Thursday.

Good luck with your trading!