Michael Bridgman

An interesting week so far as the market awaits the NFP number this Good Friday.  With many markets closed, it’s a little surprising that the U.S. has not waited until next Friday for the release.

There were some counter-trend moves yesterday and trade setups have not been clear for us.  As the USD began to weaken in the UK session, our best trade setup came from the USDCAD – even before WTI began to move upward.  The majors appeared to be moving in sync  and a bearish candle closed on the CAD 15 minute chart – taking out the previous hour’s move up.  A  short is taken with a 15 pips stop loss for a potential 125 pips to our Target 2.

As price moved down below the Asian high, we tighten our SL  to plus one pip – as this is a counter-trend move.  WTI moved up after a triple bottom and the trade looked increasingly promising.  Momentum however faded as price settled in at the Asian lows and after trying to go lower, we protected our profits closing the trade on the bounce upward.

It’s a shortened week for us and we will be back tomorrow to wrap it up if we find a trade.

Good luck with your trading!

The GBP has been ranging lately roughly between 1.47 and 1.50.  As it reached the top of its range today, sellers entered and down it came.  The pair looked beautiful to the downside on the Daily, 4 hr and hourly charts.  We fine tune our entries on the 15 minute chart and patiently awaited the US Unemployment claims release.

The number was USD positive and the majors moved in tandem.  We entered short and were quickly rewarded.  Price briefly paused at Target 1 then   cut right through Target 2 – the next candle.  We exit on the bounce protecting Target 2.

The Final GDP q/q number for the US will be closely watched by traders tomorrow.  If this number is a good one, the GBP may drop to test the recent range lows of 1.4720 or the FOMC low near 1.4625.  If the GDP number misses than we would expect a reversal to the upside.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

Fairly easy session to find trades after the US news today.  The JPY had a similar setup to yesterday for a few pips with the bounce above the low from the FOMC day.

The AUD and NZD have been reaching lofty highs of late with the .7900 level  looking like a good area to find sell setups and the .7700 level being the same for the Kiwi.  A bit of disappointing news domestically or continued USD bullishness being the potential catalyst.

A familiar reversal setup after the US news today right in our sell zone.  With an 18 pips stop loss, we are trying to get to the FOMC day high and break below.  This is a key technical level and price will tell us if it will hold.  If not, price may cascade lower potentially to test the low of the FOMC day near term but not today.

As price came down and it paused at the  .7846 level.  It bounced above and we allowed it to retest but as it found buyers after 3 candles we exited. Price did subsequently break lower and if it closes today below the .7846 level – this will be of technical significance.

Unemployment claims tomorrow and GDP on Friday will be important releases.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

After the Core CPI m/m release the USD strengthened.  The JPY has given up some important support levels of late.  Price was moving down before the CPI release but had not closed below the very significant low made last Wednesday the FOMC day.  Buyers were entering  and price moved up.  We entered long with a stop loss of 18 pips for a potential 71 pips to our Target 2.  Price ran into sellers at the mid Asian session levels before eventually breaking above.  As price got above the Asian session highs it started to find sellers just below the important 120.00 level.  We exit the trade not wanting to give back Target 1.

End of March is the Japanese year end.  Lots of US news still to come this week.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

 

 

 

Following the FOMC excitement there appears to be some two-way action with the US dollar.  In my opinion, the trend remains USD strength until the charts and bond markets tell me otherwise.

Yesterday it was difficult to sit on my hands because after the BIG counter-trend moves on Wednesday, institutions were using the pullback to add to their core positions which had been pared back considerably and in some cases closed.  Thursday’s stop losses were too expensive for me to participate.

Ending the turbulent week we saw a reversal move right across the majors today.  The USDJPY has been fairly subdued of late.  With that in mind we waited for the US session to go short with a stop of 19 pips for a potential reward of 75 pips.  Due to this being a counter-trend trade, we keep our stop loss and take profit levels tight and move our original stop loss to a plus 1 as soon as is prudent to do so.  Counter-trend moves tend to reverse abruptly.  With no US economic news, and the USD index dropping, we ride the pair down making it to our Targets 1 and 2.

We will see what next week brings us…hopefully back to trend.

Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Yesterday was a bit of a counter-trend day as profits were taken in advance of FOMC.  It didn’t take long for a reversal back to trend today.

The NZD set up nicely as there were no buyers near the Asian session highs and price promptly moved down to the Asian session lows.  As price made a lower high for the session and began to move lower…a short entry is taken with a greater than 3:1 R/R.  Price moves down then almost retests the Asian low before continuing to move lower.  When price leaves a long lower wick, we tighten our take profit.  Price then takes out yesterday’s low and our Target 1.  After two lower wicks in consecutive candles and a very bullish close…we exit the position.

Will it be June or will it be September…FOMC is tomorrow and we would expect a subdued session in advance of it.  Any counter-trend moves in the meantime will be capped as core positions are added to on retracements.  The trend remains very strong USD sentiment.

Good luck with your trading and keep your stops tight.

Back next when we find a trade.