Archives for March 2017

This trade is very similar to yesterday’s trade.  Having missed out on the wave down during the U.S. overlap yesterday, I jumped back in today and it worked out well.

After a reversal setup above its Asian highs, a short entry was taken risking 17 pips for a potential 62 pips to our daily Target.  The pair moved down and paused at yesterday’s low just as the U.S. session got underway.  Our profit stop closed the trade but today we waited for another reversal setup and entered short a second time.  The pair moved down and we exited at the end of the U.K. session.

The U.S. session has been very active the past month and I’m inclined to change my trading hours if this continues.  The Asian session too has been more active than last year.  Had I not need to be somewhere today, I would have left this trade open a little longer.

Keep an eye on the EURGBP for the time being as it will be active.  Japanese year end repatriation flows end today.  The JPY pairs will be interesting next week with my favourite one being the USDJPY.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend.

The EURGBP is a fairly easy pair to trade.  I particularly like it when the EURUSD and the GBPUSD are moving in opposite directions.  This is often due to an economic news release.

With the Article 50 triggered and delivered, it will be interesting to see if the GBP strengthens or weakens going forward.  The activity in the EURGBP certainly picked up today and we caught some of the move but the U.S. Open took us out of the trade at our tight profit stop.  The U.S. session produced another good size move to the downside that we missed out on.

As London opened the pair stalled at its Asian highs and began to reverse.  A short was taken risking 16 pips for a potential 53 pips to our Target. Price moved sideways for the first hour of the trade, then dropped through and retested its Asian session lows before dropping further then consolidating going into the U.S. Open.

This pair should be very worthwhile watching going forward.  Remember that the cross is sterling and hence worth approximately 25% more per pip than a USD cross.  Trade with stops and position sizing accordingly.

Good luck with your trading!

 

As the USDJPY reached yesterday’s high early in the U.K. session, it reversed and an entry short was taken.  With the larger charts (Daily and Weekly) unclear, we were prepared to take a trade risking 13 pips for a potential 79 pips to our daily Target.

Price moved down, then went sideways retesting its Asian lows.  We moved the stop loss to plus one pip and price eventually moved a little lower in advance of the U.S. session.  We tightened the stop loss further.  After the second long lower wick and having given up 11 pips to its close, we exited the trade.  Looking at the hourly chart, it was clear the hourly traders were not going to let price close below their important 110.83 level.

Be very careful trading when the charts are not in agreement.  Look for trade setups requiring very small stop losses.  Be patient as the market digests the recent surprises, while we await the confirmation new trends.

Good luck with your trading!

 

The Trump reflation trade has been winding down pushing the USD lower and now it’s approaching some critical technical levels.  Will it bounce upward?  Also, repatriation flows to Japan continue until the end of the month.

Oil moved up a bit today in advance of the weekly crude inventories due out tomorrow.  After the USDCAD made a second lower high for the day, with two very bearish candles, a short is taken with a stop 15 pips above our entry for a possible 54 pips to our Target.

As the U.S. session began, the USDCAD moved down and we immediately moved our stop loss to plus one pip…removing the risk from the trade.  With the pending U.S. and Canadian news today we were expecting the U.S. news to be positive and the Canadian news to be dovish.  After all, the U.S. is raising rates to slow down their growth and everyone else is hovering, watching their own economy and the Trump effect.

Price moved down to its Asian session lows and retested the level before descending further.  As it continued lower, buyers began to enter and we thought it best to get out in advance of the news.

Although the USD continues to get bashed about, it is approaching some critical levels and we will know shortly if it has any strength to take it back up or if most of us have been fooled.

Good luck with your trading!

The markets appear to be concerned about the outcome of the House of Representatives vote tomorrow regarding healthcare reform.  This could be viewed as a test for President Trump’s power and the likelihood of tax reforms this year.  Equity markets and the USD have been selling off in advance of the vote.

A very similar setup occurred in the USDJPY as yesterday and we traded it the same way.   The U.K. traders initially pushed the pair up and it failed to stay above the 111.50 area which supported it yesterday.  As it reversed, an entry short is taken and price moved down to test its Asian session low before moving a little lower.  As it came back up to retest it’s Asian low, our profit stop closed the trade.  Once the U.S. session got underway, just like yesterday, we went short at the first sign of weakness with a 10 pip stop loss above the new session high for a potential 55 pips to our Daily Target. With no U.S. economic releases pending that could possibly derail the trade, we rode it down and closed it as it bounced above our target.

We’ll find out soon if the 110.00 level can hold and stop the decline in the USDJPY.  We will also see if the current Euro strength can take it through 1.1000 but the 1.0885 area is critical in the meantime.

Good luck with your trading!

Optimistic or not about President Trump’s future policies, the USD is weak and being sold off.  In particular, the USDJPY is vulnerable and it set up nicely today.  After testing its Asian high and rolling over, a short is taken with a 15 pip stop loss.  Price moved down then slowed down and took us out of our trade just before the U.S. Open.  It then dropped for the first candle of the U.S. Open before reversing upward.  At the first sign of selling  another entry short was taken with a 13 pip stop loss for a potential 58 pips to our Daily Target.

The second entry worked out better as price moved down to our Target and we exited the trade at 112.00  The next area for price to test will be the 111.50 area where it has stalled before.  If this area gives way, it will be interesting to see if 110.00 gets tested.

The markets are more optimistic about the political outcomes in Europe at the moment than they are about the Trump administration.  I expect that this shall pass, but in the meantime the USD continues to weaken.

Good luck with your trading!