Archives for June 2016

Two entries were found in the USDCAD today.

Overall traders have something to be excited about once again.  It was getting a little boring wondering whether or not Janet Yellen would provide the markets with any hint of the next U.S. interest rate hike and hearing the same rhetoric.  Now, the markets will be very active as a result of the Brexit vote with no one clearly understanding all of its potential repercussions.  It is important for traders to trade not what they think…but what they see and to trade in the context of the current market psychology…and for greater probability…with the trend.  The market psychology has just changed!

Although we are no further ahead in knowing when Janet Yellen will hint at the next raise of U.S. interest rates, we do know traders will be focused on taking less risk while trying to determine the current and longer term implications of Brexit and the E.U.’s future direction.  In short…trading just got very interesting again!  For anyone who was able to follow along in the Asian session last week as the Brexit votes came in… it was fascinating to watch.

Today as commodity currencies weakened to the USD, a long is taken in the USDCAD with a 17 pip stop loss for a potential 127 pips to our Target 2. As price reversed its Asian moves… we were able to find an entry as price closed bullishly back above its Asian low.  As price pulled back in the middle of its Asian range, our profit stop was hit to close our first trade.  As price advanced upward, we entered long again requiring a 27 pip stop loss for a potential 70 pips to our Target 2 with 3 hours left in our trading session.  When price resisted closing above Target 1, we tightened our profit stop and were taken out just under the Asian session high.

It’s nice to know that despite it being summer, the markets will be offering some great trading going forward.  One of the great things about trading is it rarely gets boring… for long.  Even when it is a little dull…opportunities exist to make money.

Good luck with your trading!

A subdued trading session as we end this trading week.  Get ready for what is likely to be a very exciting trading week… coming up with the Brexit vote.

After a big move yesterday, the USDCAD retraced a bit today with WTI strengthening.  In the U.S. part of the session WTI began to move upward and a USDCAD short is taken risking 22 pips for a potential 53 pips to our Target 2.   Price moved to the downside for 45 minutes and closed below our Target 1.  As we crossed our fingers hoping to get to Target 2, price moved upward leaving a second lower wick and closed bullishly.  We closed the trade before giving back any more.

 

Overall a  bearish week for oil with a likely close near the $48 a barrel area.

If you have been around the markets for awhile…you will have seen some extreme moves when the unexpected happens.  Next week is likely to be one of those weeks.  Be extremely cautious or remain on the sidelines.  Don’t get greedy but have fun.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

Very active markets today!  Lots of big moves and a very active Asian session for a number of the pairs.

It’s fairly easy to find a short in the EUR and the GBP these days, but be very nimble, keep your stop losses very tight and don’t get greedy!

A short trade is taken in the EUR as it stair-stepped downward early in the UK session.  An entry short is taken with a 20 pip stop loss for a potential 90 pips to our Target 2.  We didn’t didn’t want it to run any further or the stop loss would be too expensive.  This entry allowed for the EUR to dip below the Asian low and retrace upward without taking us out.  Price moved down in dramatic fashion to yesterday’s low and bounced above our Target 1 taking us out of the trade.

The GBP provided some good returns too, but it was more of an in-and-out and back in, active style of trading.   Be very careful trading the EUR and GBP at the moment.  It will get very interesting next week as the market further assesses the implications of “Brexit Bremain”.  If the UK votes to leave the EU, then other European countries will hold referendums too.

In the meantime the data dependent FOMC is not looking to raise interest rates for the moment and the USD had a strong bid tone today.  WTI is much lower this week and taking the Canadian dollar with it.

Good luck with your trading and be careful out there!

The USDJPY could not sustain above its Asian highs and although it traded sideways… the bias was to short it.  As the U.S. session approached, a short is taken with an 11 pip stop loss with a target of getting down near the May 5th low.  Our actual Targets 1 and 2 were 105.56 and 105.41 respectively.  We were not thinking it would go much lower than the May 5th low…particularly with the Bank of Japan potentially easing this week.

After the short is taken, we moved our stop loss to plus one pip in advance of the U.S. open.  Price picked up downside momentum as the U.S. session got underway and moved down to its Asian low… where it tested and retested the level before moving lower.  As price bottomed we tightened our profit stop further and were taken out on the bounce.

Although traders are very interested in hearing what Janet Yellen will say today and how optimistic she will sound… to determine if 2 rate hikes are still on the table for 2016, it will also be interesting to hear her comments on the last employment number.  The bigger concern for the market currently is the “Brexit Bremain” polls as the countdown continues to June 23rd.  Continue to be very cautious trading the EUR and GBP.

Good luck with your trading!

 

After starting the UK session selling off, the GBP then bounced between yesterday’s low and its Asian low for 3 hours before decidedly closing lower. An entry short is taken and the pair moved lower in advance of the U.S. Open.  As new sessions begin and volatility tends to pick up with stops being run, we moved the stop loss to plus 1 pip – removing the any risk from the trade.

As the U.S. part of the session gets going, price drops through our Targets 1 & 2 in one candle and we close the trade on the first sign of a pullback.

Be very careful trading the GBP and EUR as June 23rd approaches.

WTI having reached $51.50 earlier in the week closed down bearishly below $49 to close the week.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

 

WTI closed above the important $50.00 a barrel for the first time this year and also the first time since July 2015.  With a bias to trading the Canadian dollar and the CADJPY cross long, we found a setup as both WTI and Brent began to climb in the early part of the UK session.

With an initial stop loss of 17 pips and 112 pips to our Target 2 (not shown on the chart – T1 was 85.07 and T2 was 85.23) we entered long.  As price began to rise, we moved the stop loss to a plus 2 pips while price tested its Asian high.  As it broke through and continued to yesterday’s high, we tightened our profit stop further.  Price got a little heavy above yesterday’s high as evidenced by the 2 long wicks as it double topped.  As the U.S. session got under way with the pending crude inventory levels…price began to retrace and we were closed out.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.