Michael Bridgman

After the UK news the Sterling closed above its Asian high, the EUR closed just below – as did the EURGBP.  A EURGBP short is taken on this far from volatile pair.  The stop loss was for 15 pips with a 3:1 R/R.  Price moved down, closed below its Asian low…retested the level and moved down further. As price moved through our Target 1 which also was the .7300 figure, and began to retest the level we chose to exit the trade.  This was a very classic setup.

The Greek situation continues to overshadow the EUR and it appears the market is optimistic that despite the posturing of the politicians, a deal will be worked out.  The potential for extreme volatility remains.  Surprisingly, the USD has been weak.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

After an impressive NFP number last Friday and impressive numbers coming out of Canada, the USD is having a challenge rising against the CAD. With oil prices moving up today the CAD strengthened against the USD.  As the pair began to roll over, a short entry is taken with a 15 pips stop loss and a greater than 6:1 R/R.

As price moved down…sellers pushed it through both yesterday’s low, the Asian low and our Targets 1 and 2.

Good luck with your trading!

Be very careful as the Greek situation may produce extreme moves from headline to headline this month.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

As price fell after the initial surge at the UK open, a classic reversal pattern sets up.  With price closing bullishly above both yesterday’ s high and the Asian high – a long is taken.  This trade required a 12 pip stop loss for a potential 32 pips of profit – slightly below our 3:1 R/R.  The idea is to get the risk out of the trade as soon as possible by locking in some profit and watching how price reacts at our target levels.

Price makes it to our Target 2 within 2 candles and we exit.  As it turns out there was a larger move to follow.  After positive UK economic news earlier and Greek debt headlines looming…we are happy to have made it to our Target 2 on a counter-trend trade.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if  we find a trade.

The EUR will continue to be reactive to any headlines regarding Greece and its staggering inability to repay loan payments and raise additional cash. How Greece’s financial woes will eventually be resolved is anyone’s guess.  In the meantime, I like looking for setups to short the EUR and if we get some relief rallies along the way, the same applies.  Be very cognizant of previous S&R levels as these will be levels where institutional money will enter, exit, take profits and add to existing positions.

Today the European traders moved the EUR up in the first hour of their trading – running stops above yesterday’s high.  After a reversal pattern completed in the UK session, an entry short is taken with a 22 pip stop loss for a potential 102 pips to our Target 2.  Price moved down swiftly and we placed our profit stop about halfway up the previous red candle… allowing for price to drop below the Asian session low and come back and retest it. Unfortunately price did not close below the Asian low before hitting our profit stop and we were closed out.

Always be very careful of pending economic news releases and remember it’s a lot easier to trade with the trend.  Keep your stops tight and lock in profits as your trades progress.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

There are increasingly more trades setting up daily once again, as the market suggests USD strength is back.  Yellen’s comments last week were considered hawkish and we have seen the market react accordingly as positions are built.

One of my favourite pairs to trade is the GBP and as it created a series of lower highs… a short is taken with a 21 pip stop loss for a potential 89 pips to our Target 2.

As price made its way down, we tighten our profit stop and when price bounced up from our Target 1, we are closed.

There were a number of nice trades in today’s session and we will continue to look for setups in the direction of USD strength.  The EUR will be very vulnerable to headlines regarding Greece defaulting and the implications for the EURO.  In the meantime, the yearly low looks like it could be tested in June if Greece does not get bailed out.

The JPY is active again and there is lots of blue sky above 1.2415.  There were lots of macro and longer term discretionary names entering this week.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

 

The never-ending debate about how soon the U.S. will raise interest rates continues.  Each economic news release is watched closely for a clue.

The month of June is quickly approaching and it’s an important one for Greece and the ECB.  Greece has  interest payments, loan repayments and refinancing via t-bills throughout the month.  It will be interesting as Greece’s Euro-area-backed bailout extension expires June 30th.

The EUR is approaching 1.1000 and if subsequently 1.0950 gives way…there is plenty of room to fall.  Many institutions are targeting par and below by year end.  Year end is a long way away and a lot can happen in the meantime!  A week ago the EUR was going up and the USD bulls were being squeezed.  Now it seems like the market can’t get enough US dollars.

The EUR remains below a very important level on the Daily chart.  An entry short was found as the EUR began to roll over for the session…allowing for a 17 pip stop loss.  As price moves down, the lower wicks on the candles get longer as buyers are entering.  In advance of the US open and pending US economic news, we close half of our position to lock in 30 pips.  We then move our profit stop back up to plus 1 pip for the balance.  If the market goes against us, we will have locked in the equivalent of 15 pips – not a bad day.  With no risk left in the trade, we await the outcome of the US CPI releases.  The market moves down precipitously.  We allow a few pips of wiggle room at Targets 1 and 2 knowing vertical moves are not sustainable.  Very rarely do we see a large move after Target 2 is hit.  We tighten the profit stop down and the market takes us out for bonus pips.

 

Trading is not easy but it tends to be fascinating and a lifelong learning exercise.

Interesting articles yesterday regarding the big banks and their market manipulations.

Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.