Archives for July 2015

Following the FOMC yesterday, we have USD strength once again.

The setups were present today but the R:R hasn’t made it worthwhile.  The NZD looked great to the downside but not for the limited reward.  The USDCAD however produced a better that 4:1 R:R and that is hard to pass on.

With news releases behind us we see a solid move up to close above the Asian high.  With breakout traders already “washed and rinsed” we take a long position with a modest 10 pip stop loss – allowing for price to retest the Asian high.

Price begins to move up but the long upper wicks don’t make for a comfortable long position.  We at first tighten the stop and move it up to lock in a positive outcome.  As price gets to our Target 1 – a very long upper wick and close just under our T 1 suggests that the move may be ending as sellers are entering.  We protect T 1 and are closed out 2 candles later.

Good luck with your trading.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

On a day of USD weakness, the JPY failed once again to get above the 1.2450 level.  As is declined and took out the Asian session lows after making 3 lower highs a short it taken.  This countertrend trade against the USD, offered a smaller than usual stop loss and a better than usual R:R.

As price moved down, we tightened our profit stop and closed the trade as it bounces back above Target 2.

This pair is moving in 50 pip increments.  The 1.2350 and 1.2300 levels will be important to the downside as will the 1.2400 and 1.2450 levels to the upside.

Lots of interesting economic news to come this week.  There is no reason to think that the USD won’t continue to strengthen overall as the expected rate hikes continue to be priced into the market and the MPC Official Bank Rate Votes will be of interest tomorrow for the GBP.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Yesterday BOE Governor Carney was hawkish in his speech, and the EUR continues to bear the burden of Greece.

After the EURGBP double topped today and pushed down hard after the first round of US news, a short is taken.  The stop loss was above the wick high of the last bullish candle or 12 pips for a potential 55 pips to our Target 2.

Price then stalled for an hour around the Asian highs. We tighten the stop loss and as price begins to fall again, we lock in profits.  When price drops and closes beneath the Asian session low, we expect it to retest this level before dropping further.  As it retests and closes near its high, we exit the trade.  On a Friday with all that is going on in Europe, we know that a lot of traders will not want to hold over the weekend.  As they close their positions price tends to move up.

We are happy to revisit the trade next week if it sets up nicely again.

 

After the Canadian rate cut announcement this week, it will be interesting to see if New Zealand follows next Wednesday.

Enjoy your weekend!

Back next week when we find a trade.

A big day of economic news.  The Greece situation is not resolved and hence the EUR continues to weaken.  BOE Governor Carney is sounding upbeat this week and Janet Yellen is sounding hawkish.

There remains potential for extreme volatility with the EURUSD and overall sentiment is very bearish at the moment.  This is not an issue that will quickly resolve itself despite the pending outcome of Greek parliamentary vote today.

Slow and steady makes more sense today than being aggressive.  The EURGBP is trending nicely and offered a very small stop loss as it began to sell off today.  With a 10 pip stop loss we entered short and kept our profit stop tight as price made its way down through the levels.  We had hoped that price would at least test the .7000 big figure… but it wasn’t to be and we closed the position at the UK Close for modest slow and steady gains.

 

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

 

The EUR continues to be the focus for many traders.  It had a  very short lived rally today before it rolled over after the U.S. news.  An entry short is taken with an initial 25 pip stop loss.  As price moved back down toward the Asian session high, we tightened our profit stop to get the risk out of the trade. Price descended further but bounced near yesterday’s low and the 1.1000 big figure. We lock in our gains and the reversal takes us out before the UK close.

 

If price continues downward… last week’s low in the 1.0915 area and May’s low in the 1.0820 area will be areas to observe for how price reacts.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

This is a trade from Thursday, not today.

An hour before the U.S. Open the USD begins to fall against the Canadian dollar.  As price reaches both the Asian session low and yesterday’s low, buyers enter leaving a very long lower wick.  Price pushes down and closes at the Asian session low, then manages to close below yesterday’s low.  As the US session gets underway, we see another long lower wick and price tries to climb above both yesterday’s low and the Asian session low.

Despite a disappointing U.S. Unemployment Claims number and WTI moving up – the USD catches a bid tone.  As it closes strongly above the Asian session low, we enter long with a 20 pip stop loss for a potential 62 pips to our Target 2.

Price retests the Asian session low, then begins to move higher.  As it does …we tighten our profit stop and watch a full reversal unfold.  As price makes a Double Top for the session and is showing long upper wicks, denoting sellers entering… our tightened profit stop is hit.

This is a classic example of “trade what you see…not what you think”.  It seemed odd that after a disappointing unemployment release and WTI bouncing upward that the USD would strengthen to the CAD as it did.

The Greece situation will continue to unfold this weekend.  The EUR 110.00 Big Figure remains significant to any larger downside move.  Be very cautious around this area.

Today, I couldn’t find any trade setups that I liked.  Congratulations if you did.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

Back Monday to check in on the Greece/ECB impact to the markets and will post if a trade is found that we like.