Archives for May 2015

After missing the big move yesterday and hoping for another one today, we waited for the UK economic news to pass.  An entry short is taken as price closes below the Asian session high with a 16 pip stop loss for a potential 62 pips to our Target 2.  When our profit stop is hit, we are taken out of the trade for 20 pips.  We wait 1 more candle and go long with the reversal and a 12 pip stop loss.  As price forms a hammer with a long wick above, we close the trade.  After the third red candle we re-enter short once more with a 15 pip stop loss for a potential 53 pips to our Target 2.  At the close of the UK session – we exit for the day.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

The EURGBP set up nicely as did a number of the majors today.

After rising to begin the UK session… the EURGBP made a double top and reversed lower.  With a 17 pip stop loss for a potential 64 pips to our Target 2 – we entered short with a stop above the session highs.  Price moved down and closed very bearishly below our Target 1.  As we attempt to get to Target 2 and fall just short…we give back 11 pips in the retracement to Target 1.

Tomorrow is a very important NFP for the markets!

Good luck with your trading!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Be flexible, be nimble and use tight stops.  Trade what you see as this is a 2-way market in advance of Friday’s NFP.  We seem to be somewhat detached from the economic bigger picture at the moment.  Next week should be clearer.

The Aussie hourly chart turned bullish yesterday in agreement with the 4 hour chart.  The Daily chart is mildly bullish.

After a series of higher lows and yesterday’s high unchallenged, we go long with a tight stop of 15 pips for a potential 67 pips to our Target 2.  Price began to stairstep up… allowing for easy profit stop placement under structure.   As price reached out Target 1 – we allow a little wiggle room but close the trade when price closed below it.  One could easily have gone short a candle later with a 16 pips stop loss above the session high…but with an hour left in the session we did not.

Good luck with your trading!  Choose the best setups and keep your stops tight.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

The big question regarding the GBP this week is which party will win the General Election on Thursday?  Current polls are showing it could go either way.

The Euro is moving up despite Greece which one would think would be weighing heavily upon it.  The US is showing a series of softer numbers but the major focus this week will be the NFP number on Friday.  A very strong number would signal the strong USD trend is back on.  A weak number coupled with the current soft economic numbers would signal otherwise.

With the current but highly questionable EUR strength and uncertainty about the UK Election outcome… a EURGBP long is taken with a 13 pip stop loss for a potential 56 pips to our Target 2.  Most of the  pairs are requiring a much larger stop loss than we are comfortable with at the moment – in this period where the majors are moving erratically about.

The EURGBP pair tends to be much less erratic and a slow mover.  After a large bullish engulfing candle a long is taken despite the UK news.  As mentioned above, the election outcome is really the focus this week for the GBP.   Our first objective is to close above the Asian session low and then get above yesterday’s low before moving up to the Asian session high… which is also Target 1.  As price moves up and closes above yesterday’s low, we allow for a few pips of wiggle room to retest it, but we are closed out at our profit stop for a modest gain.

Until we get through Friday, the markets are going to very tricky to trade in terms of conviction.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

The NZD made a series of lower highs over the past day.  The larger charts showed key levels giving way.  A short is taken after the second lower high of the UK session.  As price drops it begins to range between yesterday’s low and the Asian session low.  In advance of the US news we move our SL to plus 1 pip.  The news results in USD strength continuing for the session.  As price drops through and returns to our Target 2, we close the trade.

 

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

I am very adverse to large stop losses for intraday trading.  We typically find setups with stops between 15 to 25 pips for a 3:1 or greater R/R.  I also learned a long time ago not to give back profits to retracements.

The GBP moved up early in the session but with no UK news the move up was short lived.  With the wicky candles indicating that the sellers were entering, a short is taken.  Price made its way down to the mid Asian range and lost momentum.  Having tightened the stop loss to halfway down the large red candle to lock in profits, we ultimately get taken out at our profit stop and miss the following 2 waves to the downside – which completed  a classic “3 Drives to a Bottom”.

There is always another trade and no trader goes broke by taking a profit.

Good luck with your trading!