Archives for January 2018

The USDCAD was active today and a tricky pair to trade.  Despite a great employment release for Canada early this month, the pair moved down to end last week based on NAFTA negotiation concerns.  The question is whether the Bank of Canada will announce a rate hike tomorrow or not?  With some pessimism about the NAFTA outcome, Governor Poloz may think it prudent to hold off for now…despite the strong economy.

With both Brent and WTI trading lower today and a stronger USD, a short was taken.  Risking 14 pips initially for a potential 82 pips to our daily downside target (1.2357 not shown) we had a found the R/R very attractive.  The pair moved down to its Asian lows and bounced.  Having allowed it some room to retest the Asian low, we found our trade closed for a modest gain.  As price set up once again for a short trade, we entered risking 13 pips for a potential 57 pips to our target.  Price moved down but could not close below 1.2400 and after two candles with long lower wicks…indicating buyers entering, we exited the second trade for 4 pips.

Canada, Australia and China will have major economic news releases tomorrow.

Good luck with your trading.

The USD was weak again today.  With the CAD getting bumped around by NAFTA talk, I saw a nice setup in the USDJPY.  After the disappointing PPI release for the U.S. – we went short.  This trade required a 12 pips stop loss for a potential 36 pips to our daily target.  Price moved down about 10 pips then went sideways going into the U.K. close.

The trade had looked promising and had price gone through our daily target at 111.10 we were hoping for a test of the 111.00 figure.  It wasn’t to be and in trading you get what the market gives you.  A number of other correlations made this trade appealing, but some days it just doesn’t happen.

Tomorrow brings a number of economic news releases early in the U.S. session.

Good luck with your trading!

 

A fairly light news week for the USD until Friday.  In the meantime, I’ve had my eye on the USDCAD as oil continues to rise this week to 3 year highs.

On Tuesday, a long setup in the CAD early in the U.S. session overlap requiring a 15 pips stop loss looked attractive especially with a stronger USD.

The trade moved nicely up but retraced taking us out for 25 pips well short of our daily target.

On Wednesday a long setup requiring a stop loss of 15 pips gave us an entry before the U.S. open and with pending oil inventories, we locked in profit before the open and as price moved up.  This trade although it worked seemed odd in that the USD was moderately weak during the session and oil continued to rise again today.  Some profit taking in advance of the oil inventories release took us out of the trade after a nice run upward.

So far this week, it has been more of a case of “trade what you see… not what you think” as some of the usual correlations appear to be detached for the time being.

January tends to bring us surprises.  Be careful.

Good luck with your trading!

The question for many traders at the beginning of January is whether the Euro or the USD is likely to outperform the other.  The Euro has been strong but fundamentally I could make a compelling case for USD strength.  Regardless, the technicals will indicate to us if the Euro uptrend strength will continue to support a weaker economy that is not about to raise interest rates or the stronger economy that is expected to raise interest rates three times in 2018…as priced into the market.

On Tuesday the EURUSD was rising and but then hit an important level and started to reverse.  Although our short trade was a counter-trend one, the risk of 11 pips was not significant and the we caught a down wave during the U.S. session overlap for modest pips before the pair reversed upward.

On Wednesday, the EURGBP set up for a long trade after the pair made a familiar “W” pattern.  Risking 9 pips for a potential 30 pips to daily target made the trade attractive from a reward to risk perspective.

Price moved nicely upward past our daily target and the next candle closed our trade as price came back to our profit stop…before continuing further upward without us.

I have found over the years that January is a very interesting month to trade.  Currency pairs can look much different at the end of the month than how they started the new year.

Good luck with your trading and may you have a very prosperous 2018!