Archives for April 2017

Since the first round of the French election results, the Euro has been bullish, but 110.00 will be very telling as will the ECB Press Conference on Thursday.  During the U.S. session overlap a long trade was taken risking 16 pips for a potential 43 pips to our Daily Target.

Price moved up and we closed the trade as the U.K. session ended as it was close enough to our target that we didn’t want to give any back.

With a lot of the risk that was potentially associated with the outcome of the French election behind us the market has shifted its attention back to President Trump’s policies… especially around his proposed tax cuts.

Although the ECB Press Conference may not be too revealing of any interest rate hikes this year, Mario Draghi is quite capable of saying something that catches the market off-guard.

I will be keeping an eye on the EURUSD, EURJPY and EURGBP for trade setups tomorrow.

Good luck with your trading!

On Thursday after the EUR hit my daily Target high and began to fade an entry short was taken.  The idea was to see if price could move lower through its Asian high and Wednesday’s high… after that.  This would complete a very familiar pattern.  Price moved down and stopped at its Asian high but found buyers below it…which closed our trade for a very modest gain.  This week trading has been very subdued and although any 10 pip profitable move is welcome… any large directional moves have been hard to find.

With the first round of the French election outcome pending this Sunday, the market will be very sensitive to any indication of Marine Le Pen strength which will be very negative for the EUR.   As polls are frequently wrong (recent examples: Brexit and Trump) the potential for extreme volatility in the EURUSD and EUR crosses exists.

Money management and position sizing risk should always be paramount in a trader’s mind.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!

 

After a long Easter weekend the markets were very active today and the USD was on its back foot.  As the session progressed the EUR broke higher and began a move toward 1.0700.  After a familiar “W Pattern” formed, a long EUR position was taken with a stop loss below the previous 2 candles’ double bottom.  With a daily target just under 107.00 we rode the trade higher through yesterday’s high and closed it early in the U.S. session as a candle closed at our target.

The EUR will remain sensitive to the French election first round outcome this Sunday and with Britain now having an election on June 8th, the EURGBP will continue to be a worthwhile pair to keep an eye on.  The announcement by P.M. May today has been positive for the GBP.

Trade cautiously as we continue through the geopolitical volatile period.

Good luck with your trading!

After a third higher low for the day and a stronger USD, a long trade is taken risking 10 pips.  Price completed a reversal formation and closed above yesterday’s low.  When price bounced off its low today in the Asian session, buyers were entering at a very important level on the Daily chart.  The USDJPY has been coming down all week and it was not surprising to see it move up today with a stronger USD.  If today’s low is retested and gives way, it will be very telling.  If it price continues higher… a break and daily close above 110.00 will be telling.

When taking countertrend trades, it is prudent to use tight stops and not to expect as many pips.  Lock in profits along the way and get the risk out of the trade as soon as possible by moving your stop loss to a positive net position.  Also it’s a good idea to take smaller size positions.  As always read price which is the best indicator of all and protect your profits.

Enjoy the long weekend and good luck with your trading!

On Tuesday a USDJPY short setup occurred after the pair began to rollover after testing the mid level of its Asian range.  Risking 13 pips for a potential 58 pips to our daily target. we entered.   Once the U.S. session got underway, the pair moved down rapidly.  As it approached our target of 110.03, it moved right through it and plummeted to 109.62 before retracing slightly.  We chose to exit at the close of the next candle.

On Wednesday the USD remained soft and another attempt to go short the USDJPY only yielded 10 pips before we exited before the U.K. close.  The U.S. session has been quite active lately after the U.K. close and numerous reversal are occurring.

With tensions mounting geopolitically it is prudent to trade with tight stop losses and lock in your profits.  Gains can be erased in a blink and stop losses hit if the situation with North Korea escalates.

Good luck with your trading.

Mario Draghi said little to encourage any Euro buying on Thursday.  Waiting until the U.S. session began, we conservatively waited for a short setup.  With a small stop loss above the U.S. session high, we entered short hoping to get down near the .8500 level.  Price moved down to test its Asian session low before finding buyers under yesterday’s low.  When a long lower wick appears, experience tells me to tighten up my profit stop as buyers are entering…and to watch the next candle closely.  As the U.K. session was ending soon, we exited the trade as price began to move up.

Tip:  On Tuesday during the U.S. session, I entered short the USDJPY after a second lower high and a very bearish candle.  The trade moved immediately in my favour.  I then got busy with something else and took my eye off the trade.  I glanced back a few minutes later and the pair was moving nicely down.  Instead of protecting myself and moving my stop loss to a profitable plus one, I focused my attention elsewhere, thinking that I would check back in a bit to check on the trade.  When I did, my trade was closed and the stop loss had been hit on a reversal.

There are risks associated with trading and we accept those risks whenever we enter a trade.  When a trade becomes profitable, if you can’t keep your eyes on it, remove the risk from your trade by moving your stop loss to a positive net position.  Even if this is just plus one pip, it makes more sense than being stopped out and puts you in a “stress free” position while the trade is on.   I really kicked myself for being distracted and not having moved my stop loss down in this case.  The stop loss was only for 13 pips, but if I can’t watch my trade to interpret what price is telling me, then I need to remove the risk from it… or not trade.  Be very careful of distractions when you’re trading as they can be be expensive lessons.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!