Archives for July 2016

As WTI began to move lower in the U.S. part of the session, a long is taken in the USDCAD.  This trade worked out well as it moved quickly to our targets and we exited at our Target 2 – 1.3160 an hour later.  A risk of 18 pips for a potential 73 pips to our Target 2 made the trade very compelling and a nice way to end the week.

The EUR closed Thursday above 1.1000 but if it closes the week below this level… I expect the bearishness will continue and next week, it will test the June Brexit day low… before heading to test its March low.

Summer trading continues to be good!

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

The ECB press conference today offered very little new information for the market.  Looking at the chart we can see very little buying activity above the Asian high.  As the EUR started to sell off again, we entered short and looked to see how price would reacts at today’s Asian low and then the sticky all important 1.1000 figure.  Price moved down and retested each – as expected, then bottomed just below our Target 2 which was also at yesterday’s low, where we exited.

It will be interesting to see if we get a close today below 1.1000.  Will tomorrow be the day that we test the Brexit Day low just above 1.0900?  We will know more after the flash PMI numbers are released as they may precipitate the selling.  The 1.1000 figure and just above remains a favourite area to clear out some options and then resell them…hmmm.

Good luck with your trading!

 

 

 

The direction for the EUR remains down in my opinion.  After the German ZEW number came out today, the pair set up for a short as it closed below its Asian low requiring a 15 pip stop loss for a potential 61 pips to our Target 2.  Price retested the Asian low, but buyers were few and price made its way lower with the next test being the session low spike, then yesterday’s low.  A bit of volatility just before the U.S. session got underway with the usual profit taking.

As price moved lower closing very bearishly, we locked in more profit…hoping to get to Target 1 on the next candle.  Instead, price moved back up taking us out of the trade.

The 1.1000 figure will be difficult to definitively move through, but I am not expecting it hold for long…then we will target the Brexit Day low near 1.0900

Good luck with your trading!

 

Our bias has been to short the EUR but we are not going to fight the market when it chooses to move higher on any given day.

The EUR has been flirting with some critical levels this week as it moved higher, but has shown no strength to the upside.  Fundamentally, in my opinion, there are a number of reasons to short the EUR, but it’s important to wait for the technicals to align before doing so.  Today a favourite setup requiring a stop loss risk of only 12 pips created our entry early in the session…but it wasn’t until the U.S. session got underway that it moved nicely downward.  As price moved right through yesterday’s low, we gave it lots of room to retest the area, because it’s an area of confluence with the position traders…evidenced on the daily chart.  The level was retested as expected before price moved lower and just before the UK Close, we exit as price touches our Target 2.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

Our condolences to the people of France and others affected by yesterday’s tragedy in Nice.

 

 

The EUR tried and failed today to break an important level on the Daily chart.  As it came back down to it during the early part of the U.S. session a short is taken…requiring a 16 pip stop loss for a potential 53 pips to our Target 2.  Price pivoted around our entry as the Asian high and the important level to the position traders is tested and retested.  Eventually price fell but appeared to find some buyers below yesterday’s high and it did not move down to test its Asian low.  Overall an uneventful EUR trade.  My bias remains to the short side and the lower highs today on the 15 minute chart continue.  We’ll see where it closes at the end of the U.S. session.

Surprisingly the GBP showed some post Brexit strength today but my bias remains to look for short setups… for now.

The week is just getting started and hopefully tomorrow’s trading will be more eventful.

Good luck with your trading!  Remember it’s a lot easier to trade with the trend alongside the big money.

A fairly straightforward trade in the USDJPY today.  The direction on the larger charts is down and an entry is found early in the U.S. part of the session requiring a 15 pip stop loss for a potential 45 pips to its Asian low.  Our Target 1 was 100.16 and Target 2 was 99.94.  Without a lot of time left in our trading session we are quite happy to find the reversal setup requiring a small stop loss of 15 pips for 45 pips if it only moves to its Asian low… before the UK close.

When shorting this pair be aware of the 100.00 level where we may see it bounce.  If 100.00 gives way and sellers push it lower, be cognizant of the Brexit day vote low.

Another nice trade today was in the USDCAD after the oil inventories number.  Again… another fairly straightforward trade as WTI  dropped.

Good luck with your trading!  It will be interesting to see if the NFP number beats expectations tomorrow but we will not be trading.

Enjoy your weekend!

Back next week.