Archives for April 2016

The GBP took out 1.4200 today.  After the triple top formed in the U.S. overlap –  the GBP continued downward.  We entered short, risking 24 pips for a potential 72 pips to our Target 2.  The trade was unable to get through the Asian low and lasted less than an hour for a modest gain. The GBP appears to be headed for 1.4000 now and it may find buyers there before giving way to the 1.3850 level.  The uncertainty of June 23rd continues to weigh heavily on the sterling.

The USDCAD has taken out October 2015’s low…so we would expect it to retest this level.  The Canadian dollar is strengthening to the USD as the price of WTI  is well off its bottom and trading around the $42 area.  Forty-five minutes into the U.S. session, WTI drops giving a lift to the USDCAD. An entry long is taken with an eye on a continued move downward in oil.  We were willing to risk 31 pips (CAD) for a potential 99 pips to our Target 2. Price moved up quickly but was unable to continue higher after leaving a long upper wick and lower high.  We tighten our profit stop and the market took us out on the next candle.

With the OPEC meeting this weekend  in Doha Qatar, the market may be awaiting the outcome before it makes its next move – up or down.

Good luck with your trading!

 

The GBP which continues to be a favourite short – set up very similarly to yesterday’s trade. (see yesterday’s post)

A short is taken risking 13 pips for a potential 108 pips to our Target 2 (not shown on the chart today due to spacing requirements) but was 1.4132 today.  As was true yesterday, the 1.4200 figure is holding well.  The 4 hour chart also reveals a barrier in this area that coupled with the figure is where buyers are entering.  This too shall give way soon but expect price in the meantime for price to be a bit sticky at this level… if not to bounce above it.  Remember to read price NOT indicators!

Our trade moved down and the U.S. traders helped move it down further with a bearish close below the Asian lows.  After placing our stop profit halfway down the bearish candle…we are taken out as price reverses and moves back up into the Asian range.

The Nikkei closed up 2.84% and the USD was strong today.  Why not look for a USDJPY long trade while it is making nice waves to the upside?  We can see from the chart that buyers were entering at the Asian highs and with the US session well underway, a long setup presents itself requiring a 10 pip stop loss for a potential 48 pips to our Target 2.  The trade moved up and double topped leaving a very long wicky candle with 15 minutes left in the UK session.  We exit for a modest gain.

 

The crude oil inventories surplus number didn’t cause a dramatic effect in the price of WTI as it currently sits just under $42.

Good luck with your trading!

 

Today the GBP once again weakened to the USD.   The entry short set up with an R/R of 6:1 – requiring a 20 pip stop loss for a potential 123 pips to our Target 2.  As soon as the U.S. session got underway the pair began to drop with momentum.  It stalled after a relatively fast 43 pips to retest the Asian high before descending to the 1.42 figure.  The confluence from the 4 hour and 1 hour chart along with the figure brought about the bounce and reversal.

The GBP will remain heavy as concerns around Brexit and Prime Minister Cameron’s current Panama popularity remain in question.  The pair is active and well worth keeping an eye on.   If a long setup presents itself, and the USD is getting sold, then it can traded long too, but it is easier to short currently.

Good luck with your trading!

 

Another day of USD weakness versus the majors and still lots of room for the USDJPY to drop further.  A reversal pattern set up in the U.S. part of the session and an entry short is taken with the trending move.  With a 21 pip stop loss and a potential 98 pips to our Target 2, this pair set up nicely.

Our first challenge was to get through the Asian session low before making it down to Targets 1 & 2.  Target 2 coincidentally is yesterday’s low after the major sell-off.

Price makes its way lower but finds buyers in the 108.20 area.  We tighten our take profit after the 2 wicky candles and price takes us out in the last 15 minutes of the U.K. session for modest gains.

Talk of Bank of Japan intervention may abound next week, but my understanding is this would have to be approved in advance by the ECB and the FED.  In the meantime, the downward trend could approach the 105.50 level or below.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!

Back next week.

 

 

 

A quiet day news wise as traders awaited with dovish expectation the FOMC meeting minutes.  The crude oil inventories came in well below expectations which gave WTI a needed lift.  This set up a short trade for the USDCAD.

We waited for price to move down after the news and enter near the Asian session low with a 24 pip stop loss just above the Asian high for a potential 89 pips to our Target 2.   Price moved down vertically testing yesterday’s low and bouncing above our Target 1 at the close of the U.K. session and we closed the trade.

Mario Draghi is tentatively speaking Thursday and we also have the U.S. Unemployment claims.

Good luck with your trading!

 

 

The GBP made a series of lower highs and as it tried and failed to move higher into its Asian range… a short is taken…risking 15 pips for a potential 87 pips to our Target 2.

Price moved down…went sideways and made another move down just as the U.S. traders began.  The next candle tagged our profit stop and we were closed just under yesterday’s low – missing the last wave down.

Tomorrow we have crude oil inventories which will affect the CAD pairs.  WTI is weak again but $35 is still holding so far…

Good luck with your trading!