As the USD came under pressure today, the USDJPY set up first among the majors. The commodity pairs followed after the CB Consumer Confidence release.
The GBPUSD continues to be vulnerable as the June 9th election looms. A possible fall election in Italy may be keeping some pressure on the EURUSD today as we approach month end.
Good luck with your trading!
On Friday the USD took another tumble and with WTI rising and staying above $50, the USDCAD looked poised for a reversal in the early part of the U.S. session. The dollar index continued to drop and an entry short was taken. Risking 20 pips for a stop loss and with a target of 57 pips to our daily target of 1.3522, we were optimistic after the near “railroad tracks” candle reversal.
Price moved down but could not take out a critical level from the 240 minute chart. At it retested the level just before the U.K. close, we exited the trade shy of our daily target of 1.3522.
Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!
On Wednesday the USD was selling heavily as political events overshadowed economic fundamentals. All the majors strengthened to the USD during the early part of the U.S. session. I liked the NZDUSD setup a little better than the AUDUSD because the chart was clearer to my eyes. I really liked the USDJPY too but it had run too far whereas the commodity pairs had not and were clearly reversing upward. Although the trade was a countertrend move, it was evident that the USD was getting hammered across the board and it was an opportunity to take advantage of a fast moving market.
The currency markets are very active this year and it doesn’t matter which session you trade because there are nice setups in most sessions followed by fair size moves. The market is also moving quite technically at the moment and if you know the levels where a pair is likely to stall or reverse – it is not difficult to capture a move and protect your profits.
Good luck with your trading!
The USD was weak today after the disappointing building permits release early in the U.S. session. The market is sensitive to weak U.S. numbers, as it attempts to weigh the odds of 3 rate hikes in the U.S. this year. June is the expected next rate increase and whether or not there will be a third late in the year or earlier – possibly followed by a fourth is yet to be priced in.
The gloom overshadowing Europe at the beginning of the year has largely be alleviated by the Dutch and French election results and better economic outlook than we would have had otherwise.
Today after the U.S. news, we waited for a convincing candle to go short and found our entry requiring a 14 pip stop loss for a potential 53 pips to our daily target. As the USD remained on its back foot the USDJPY moved lower and bounced at the 113.00 figure. With buyers entering below, we moved our profit stop down and the trade was closed at 113.04.
I continue to keep an eye on the EURGBP – especially when the EURUSD and GBPUSD move in opposite directions.
I have taken the last 2 weeks off from postings due to time constraints, but I’m back and will be active when I find high probability setups.
Good luck with your trading!
Since the first round of the French election results, the Euro has been bullish, but 110.00 will be very telling as will the ECB Press Conference on Thursday. During the U.S. session overlap a long trade was taken risking 16 pips for a potential 43 pips to our Daily Target.
Price moved up and we closed the trade as the U.K. session ended as it was close enough to our target that we didn’t want to give any back.
With a lot of the risk that was potentially associated with the outcome of the French election behind us the market has shifted its attention back to President Trump’s policies… especially around his proposed tax cuts.
Although the ECB Press Conference may not be too revealing of any interest rate hikes this year, Mario Draghi is quite capable of saying something that catches the market off-guard.
I will be keeping an eye on the EURUSD, EURJPY and EURGBP for trade setups tomorrow.
Good luck with your trading!
On Thursday after the EUR hit my daily Target high and began to fade an entry short was taken. The idea was to see if price could move lower through its Asian high and Wednesday’s high… after that. This would complete a very familiar pattern. Price moved down and stopped at its Asian high but found buyers below it…which closed our trade for a very modest gain. This week trading has been very subdued and although any 10 pip profitable move is welcome… any large directional moves have been hard to find.
With the first round of the French election outcome pending this Sunday, the market will be very sensitive to any indication of Marine Le Pen strength which will be very negative for the EUR. As polls are frequently wrong (recent examples: Brexit and Trump) the potential for extreme volatility in the EURUSD and EUR crosses exists.
Money management and position sizing risk should always be paramount in a trader’s mind.
Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!
