Michael Bridgman

As Japan’s markets re-open after the silver week holidays, the Nikkei sells off 2.76%.  This translates to sell the USDJPY coupled with a bit of mid-week reversal today overall in the majors.

Sellers of the USDJPY were entering around the 120.00 big figure today.  We found a decidedly bearish candle and entered short with a 17 pip stop loss in the sell zone above 120.00…for a potential 61 pips to our Target 2.

Price moves down to the Asian session lows, before testing and retesting the level.  It then moved down to yesterday’s lows to test the level before descending to our Target 1.  Buyers began to enter below our T 1 and we took that as a signal to exit at 119.50.

Janet Yellen speaks later today.  Final GDP q/q is the early U.S. session focus for tomorrow.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

China’s PMI number missed and both the AUD and NZD sold off during the Asian session.  As both pairs moved up from their Asian lows, we looked for the sellers to enter and go short with the trend.

The AUD offered a nice setup with a 15 pip stop loss for a potential 58 pips to our Target 2.  The Kiwi offered a very good reward to risk ratio trade setup too (not shown).

As the U.S. session got underway and with no U.S. economic news releases pending, we enter short with the intention of getting down to the Asian session low and if the momentum continues…to our Targets 1 & 2 – but we are acutely aware of the .7000 big figure as mentioned yesterday.

As the UK session ends, we exit the trade just below Target 1.

There will be European and U.S. economic releases tomorrow, so trade accordingly.

The RBNZ is expected by the market to lower interest rates going forward… so more short opportunities will be presenting themselves.  I will continue to look for shorts versus the USD as this trend continues…with or without interest rate hike rumours.  Janet Yellen will be speaking after the U.S. close tomorrow…

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

Very little economic news for the session and broad-based USD strength.  Commodity currencies continue to falter versus the USD.  Very important China PMI due later today as the market moves its focus back to China this week.  Japan remains on holidays.

As the majors weakened to the USD, we awaited for a retest of the Asian and yesterday’s low which allowed us a 12 pips stop loss for a potential 43 pips to our Target 2.  We removed the risk from the trade relatively early and ride it down to Target 2 – protecting ourself along the way.  This is the second day in a row that this pair has made a 3 Drives to a bottom pattern.

Be careful with this pair as it approaches the .70000 big figure.  It will likely be reactive later today to the China PMI release, so be careful.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

 

 

Firstly, we have the answer now – no interest rate hike.  The question I ask myself is… if I were travelling the world, which currency would I like to have in my pocket?  The USD!  Next question, if I were a large pension fund or corporation with excess cash in the treasury, where can I safely put that money and make money on it?  U.S. t-bills and bonds!  So…has anything really changed because the Fed didn’t raise interest rates yesterday?  Many analysts would say emphatically…yes!

The Nikkei sold off today and USDJPY followed.  After the pair shows a reversal with the U.S. session underway, we prepare to go long with a stop loss just below the spike bottom of the previous low.  Price begins to climb making it through the Asian low and yesterday’s low.  At the first sign of sellers entering we promptly exit.

Analysts make interesting conversation.  Traders make money!

Good luck with your trading!  Enjoy your weekend!

Back next week when we find a trade setup we like.

 

 

My preference is still to short the AUD when the setup is available.  As it ran out of upside momentum and started to reverse early in the UK session… a short is taken with a 15 pip stop loss for a potential 61 pips to our Target 2.   A 4:1 R/R is always nice.

Price traded sideways testing and retesting its Asian high before breaking to the downside.  With lots of time before the US session and plenty of room to the Asian low, the trade looked very good.  As price reached the middle of its Asian session range, it reversed and took us out.

Tomorrow will be interesting.  Will they or won’t they…and then what?

The GBP had difficulty climbing above its Asian highs today.  With the news out of the way, we take a short with a stop loss of 21 pips for a potential 74 pips to our Target 2.  Price did not move down quickly, but clearly there were no buyers above the Asian highs and it began to turn down.  As price descended, we locked in some profits in advance of the pending U.S. session and the retail sales releases.

Price continued downward briefly resting at the Asian low before dropping to our targets.  As price bounced upward just in advance of hitting our Target 2, our profit stop is tagged and we are taken out of the trade.

Lots of news this week, but the major event risk is the Fed. rate decision which many expect to be the first  25 bp hike in a new rising interest rate environment.  The FED has been sounding hawkish of late, but the market is still very divided upon the timing.

Trade cautiously as always and keep your stop losses tight.