Archives for March 2016

The USDJPY had fairly subdued trading during the Asian part of the session before selling off early in the UK session.  As it reversed at a favourite time of the day, we entered long risking 19 pips for a potential 102 pips to our Target 2.  Price moved up to test the Asian session low, then began to climb higher as soon as the US session began.  As price continued higher, we locked in profits and got closed on the first pullback to our profit stop.

Tomorrow we have Mario Draghi and the ECB press conference and the US unemployment claims.

Good luck with your trading!

 

 

On Thursday the “risk on” theme in global markets continued.  Although my preference would be to short the GBP, if the market wants to buy it, then waiting for a high probability setup that allows for a small stop loss opportunity and a good R/R is going to be what I look for.  This setup offered a 25 pip stop loss for a potential 101 pips to our Target 2.

The setup also included a textbook “W” pattern with 3 lower lows on pullbacks coupled with a 3 candle reversal.  An entry could have been taken after the second higher low, but the stop loss was too rich for me…being that this was a countertrend trade.  Price began to move up nicely taking out the Asian high and moving above and closing above our T1.  We protected that level and after price went through our T2 level, we closed as the trade moved back to retest it.

This an a very good pattern to become familiar with and has high probability of success.  Knowing just a couple of patterns and being disciplined in waiting and trading them can lead to some very successful trading.  Practice is always the key, and this is best done in a demo account while you are learning and developing a track record of successful trades.  Learn how to read what the market is telling you, then learn how to trade it…but do not fall prey to gadgety indicators that will give you inconsistent results and erode your confidence.

Sentiment can change quickly in the markets, but understanding the context of the markets on any given day will enable you to be objective and look for clues as to how the flows are moving, and let you determine if entries make sense consistent with your trading plan.

Lots of economic news next week including releases from China the ECB press conference on Thursday.  I will be looking for EUR weakness.  Oil remains strong this week and hence part of the “risk on theme” globally that we have experienced this week.  This too can change which is why intraday trading appeals most to me.  I don’t like giving back gains as the sentiment swings back and forth from one day to the next.  In a beautiful trending market it makes more sense to position trade – to my way of thinking.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading.

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to email me.

An overall bullish tone was consistent throughout the Asian markets.  Australia’s GDP beat expectations and the AUD soared higher immediately.  A bit of a pullback early in the European and UK session did not breach yesterday’s high.  After a second higher low, we entered long in the U.S. part of the session… once the news was out of the way – risking 15 pips for a 2:1 R/R.  Price moved up and through our targets.  At the first sign of a pullback to T2 we exited the trade.

Oil is continuing upward and remaining well above the key $30 level and despite the inventories buildup reported today – remains above $34.  Keep your eyes on the CAD and its crosses for entries consistent with disciplined R/R.

A divergence between the direction of the EURUSD and the GBPUSD made for an opportunity to short the EURGBP today with a beautiful setup.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

 

 

The GBP is reaching multi-year lows.  As political uncertainty regarding Brexit continues, the GBP will be under pressure and rallies will offer further shorting opportunities.

Today after a second lower high an entry short is taken with an 18 pip stop loss for a potential 108 pips to our Target 2.  Price moved down to test and retest the Asian session high before dropping right through yesterday’s high.  We gave yesterday’s high a little wiggle room to retest but price bounced off a very significant level in the 1.3928 area.  Buyers entered reversing the market causing our profit stop to be hit.

Option pricing for the GBP is now higher than it was before the Scottish referendum vote last year.  Keep the Sterling on your trading radar as it may test 2001 and 2009 lows in the near term.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.