Michael Bridgman

The GBP made a series of lower highs and as it tried and failed to move higher into its Asian range… a short is taken…risking 15 pips for a potential 87 pips to our Target 2.

Price moved down…went sideways and made another move down just as the U.S. traders began.  The next candle tagged our profit stop and we were closed just under yesterday’s low – missing the last wave down.

Tomorrow we have crude oil inventories which will affect the CAD pairs.  WTI is weak again but $35 is still holding so far…

Good luck with your trading!

I’m a day late in posting and it’s been tricky finding a trade this week.  I don’t usually post trades that result in less than 25 pips, but I certainly haven’t found any great trades this week.  This small one yesterday looked good, but the profit stop was hit and we were done at 20 pips.

The trade started with a 25 pip stop loss that I would not have let run up to that level.  The stop loss is always placed in case the market spikes against a trader due to some unforeseen event to prevent catastrophic loss.

Being bearish the GBP… a chance to short it is hard to resist most days and this trade had the potential to move 126 pips to our Target 2.  Alas the market had other ideas…but it did look good…right up until our profit stop was hit.

Today I found nothing that met my criteria for trading.  With it being a shortened week with the Easter holiday in many areas and the market waiting on Janet Yellen’s speech on Tuesday and NFP on Friday – it has been difficult to find setups for me.  The market tends to be tricky at month end and especially at end of quarter and year end.  I will step aside until next week and hope for a good NFP number tomorrow.

The first quarter of 2016 has ended and where are we now?  The USD was very strong last year and expectations grew by year end that interest rates would rise further in 2016… and they likely still will rise…but not as soon as many traders had anticipated considering how well the U.S. economy is doing.  A continuing dovish sounding Janet Yellen has helped the USD lose some of last year’s luster…for now.

Commodities including oil appear to have bounced off their lows and this is very positive for commodity sensitive currencies and especially oil sensitive currencies.  Europe remains unstable financially and Mario Draghi is throwing in everything he can to stabilize it and to my surprise the Euro has been holding up very well.  Will Britain choose to leave the EEC?  The UK is not doing as well economically this year and the “Brexit” uncertainty is very negative for the GBP.  China remains very interesting as they attempt to stimulate targeted growth.  Japan has a lot to overcome economically but the JPY remains strong as a reserve currency.

Currency trading is always interesting and ever changing… a fascinating occupation!

We will see what Q2 brings us in the way of trading opportunities.

Good luck with your trading!

Back next week.

With commodities moving up this year, the CAD and AUD have been active of late.

After Governor Stevens mentioned the Aussie dollar had gotten a bit ahead of itself yesterday, we would have thought it would have moved down then.  Instead we got a series of lower highs today and a short is taken for modest gains as we allowed a little wiggle room just above Target 1 and price moved up hitting our profit stop.

Good luck with your trading!

Hoping to find a trade before Good Friday…

As oil maintained its strength the USDCAD moved down.  The price of Brent and WTI were very close today which is unusual as Brent typically is about $2 more a barrel.

During the U.S. part of the session a setup enables us to go short.   Price moved down to test its Asian lows before descending further.

It’s very unfortunate that terrorists have struck in Europe again and this time in Belgium.  The GBP reacted very negatively but I could not find a safe entry.

Our hearts and prayers go out to the people of Belgium and the families of those killed and injured in the attacks.

Back tomorrow.

Many market participants were expecting a slightly more hawkish tone from the Fed yesterday.  The result was USD weakness which extended into today.

After a tight range was made during the Asian session the European traders came on and bid the EUR up.  Anticipating that London would do the same as the U.S. did post FOMC, we entered long while we could still afford the stop loss.  The EUR made a quick surge upward – rested and made a second drive higher early in the session.  As there was no follow through after Target 1 was hit, we tightened our profit stop and we were taken out of the market on the next candle.

As we have moved the clocks forward in North America, we will be closing our trades by the European Close until Europe and the UK move theirs ahead later this month.

Good luck with your trading!

There have been numerous beautiful setups over the past 24 hours.  We can piggyback on the “risk on” trading mentality and post “Super Mario” temporary market euphoria, but we need to be very careful.  The EUR may find sellers emerging around 1.1250 next week and if not, it could run up to test 1.1375 – which would be telling.

The USDCAD was very telling today as WTI continued higher.  Despite a disappointing Canadian employment number the CAD moved with WTI strength and its ability to hold $38.

The rejection at the 1.33 figure which is very significant today, created a nice setup on the 15 minute chart.  With all the Cdn. news behind us, we entered short with a 25 pip stop loss for a potential 85 pips to our Target 2.  Price moved down vertically requiring tight and active profit stop placement along the way – as vertical moves are not sustainable and tend to reverse abruptly.  We gave price a little wiggle room at the significant levels – to retest and not to be greedy with little time left in the trading week, we exited at our T2.

In North America the clocks move ahead 1 hour this weekend for Daylight Savings Time.  In the UK and Europe, this is still 2 weeks away.

With the currency markets being very active, it remains very important to your trading success to use sound money management!  Pick setups that are very familiar to you and requiring the best R/R.

Lots of central bank news next week.

Good luck with your trading!