Michael Bridgman

Nothing interesting today to close the week but an AUDUSD trade from Thursday produced a modest gain

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As the U.S. session got underway on Thursday, the AUDUSD began to roll over and a short was taken risking 10 pips for a potential 44 pips to our daily target at .7605.  The trade inched lower slowly and we exited at the U.K. close.

Trade tariff implications remain the subject of concern and discussion this week.  The G7 meetings will be interesting, but may not be overly productive in changing President Trump’s perspective.

This week did not have a lot of economic news drivers for the market…the calm before the storm.  Next week is going to be exciting and hopefully some trades will set up for us.  The Trump-Kim meeting in Singapore on Tuesday, is followed by FOMC on Wednesday, ECB on Thursday and BOJ to complete the week.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend.

 

 

 

 

Still shorting the EURUSD when it sets up

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The EURUSD set up today for a very rewarding R:R as we were able to enter short risking 14 pips for a potential 100 pips to our daily target at 1.1604. The pair stair-stepped down after it failed to close above its multi-pivot.   Protecting our profit in advance of the ISM Non-Manufacturing release caused our trade to be closed before the last wave down.

After the U.K. session a report that the ECB live meeting on June 14 could give us an announcement as to when they intend to stop buying bonds.  This jolted the EURUSD higher.  Never fight the market, but I don’t expect a lot to materialize from this.  We will watch and see if the EUR takes out important technical levels or if it begins to fade again.  Despite the reversal after the U.K. close, overall the range was tighter than expected today which leads me to be suspicious of the strength behind the countertrend move.

The U.S. tariffs are more a concern for the USD at the moment in my opinion. than a sudden pop in the EURUSD.  Watch how price reacts at the key technical levels, keep your stops tight and protect your profits.

The RBA left rates unchanged which gave way to further selling today.  The NZDUSD which tends to move lockstep with the AUDUSD most days had a very appealing entry after it failed to stay above its Asian high.  The AUDUSD setup was less attractive as it was in the middle of its Asian range.  Congratulations to those who traded the Kiwi.

The Canadian dollar continues to get beat up with NAFTA negotiations going sideways and oil moving lower.  WTI is retesting a critical level which will be telling for the pair.  The pair looks heavy above 1.3000 but if WTI moves lower and NAFTA negotiations continue to stall, we may see 1.31oo get tested again.  There is a lot of CAD news going forward this week including the Trade Balance and Crude Oil Inventories tomorrow.  BOC Governor Poloz will be speaking Thursday and Employment numbers  are due Friday.  It looks like it will be a busy pair.

Good luck with your trading!

 

 

The GBPUSD set up for a short early in the U.S. session

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As mentioned previously, I like to look for short setups in the EURUSD and GBPUSD until the current trend changes.  Today both pairs set up but the GBP short only required a 14 pip stop loss for a potential 65 pips to our daily target.

It took price about 45 minutes to get going but once it did… after pausing at Friday’s high, it was able to descend right to our target where we exited.

Mondays are my least favourite day to find trade setups because the correlations tend to be less clear or conflicting.  This trade was helped by there being no U.S. economic news releases.

The U.S. economic news calendar is fairly light this week.  Tariff banter may affect market sentiment.  The continuing strong U.S. economy has traders pondering the question as to whether there will be just 3 rate hikes this year or is a fourth a likelihood?

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your trading week!

Tumultuous trading week includes Italian government, U.S. imposed tariffs, and “on again” summit with North Korea

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The markets are gyrating about as uncertainty regarding Italy’s ability to form a euro-friendly government remain in question.  Spain too may have a change of government pending.  Uncertainty will not help the Euro.

The U.S. is imposing tariffs at midnight which will have very far reaching implications and likely retaliatory measures from its trading partners.

The good news is it appears that the summit with President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is on again.

Today as oil prices weakened ahead of the crude inventories the USDCAD moved up.  Risking 20 pips for a potential 90 pips to our daily target at 1.2928 we entered long.  Price moved up quickly to our target where our trade was closed…then price continued higher without us.

A second trade shorting the USDJPY set up for us today.  Risking 13 pips for a potential 73 pips to our daily target, we entered short.  The idea was to take advantage of a flight to safety.  After 3 lower highs, we entered and price moved down quickly but the trade closed at our profit stop when it bounced to retest its Asian low.

Be careful tomorrow trading around the Non-Farm Employment release which historically is accompanied by extremely volatility.  This has been less so this year.  There is a lot going on geopolitically… be very careful trading and keep adjusting your profit stops… so as not to give back your profits.

Good luck with your trading!

A nice short on the EURUSD to end the week

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The EURUSD continues to be a pair that I like to short… as previously mentioned.  It doesn’t set up every day but when it does as it did today, I want to take advantage of it.

Today the USD was strong and after the EUR failed to stay above its Asian high, a short was taken risking 12 pips for a potential 69 pips to our daily target.  This type of risk/return setup on a trending pair is very hard to resist.

Price moved down vertically.  We tightened our profit stop taking the risk out of the trade and then allowing for a retest of its Asian low.  Price continued lower and plunged through yesterday’s low.  After a large candle to the downside which left a moderate lower wick, we tightened our profit stop to lock in 50 pips and our trade was closed.  The pair subsequently moved to our daily target (without us), then began to retrace going into the London close.

With oil moving down the past couple of days, the USDCAD has been very active.  We were unable to secure more than 15 pips yesterday on the pair,  but I have talked with others that did much better and were very successful trading it today.

Enjoy your weekend!

 

Shorting the GBP as Prime Minister May and Bank of England Governor Carney remain on their back foot

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With Brexit in just over 10 months, internal squabbles continue for P.M. May regarding her plans to remain in the customs union longer if necessary as the question regarding the Irish border remains unresolved.

BOE Governor Carney in his recent statement has left the market thinking that a rate hike in August is below a 50% likelihood.  Carney will be speaking throughout the week which makes the GBPUSD potentially very volatile.  With price still below a critical level, we will continue to look for shorts…and of course listen to what Gov. Carney says.

Today a short was taken early in the U.S. overlap risking 17 pips for a potential 47 to our daily target at 1.3402.  Without a strong USD today, the trade went back and forth before bouncing off its Asian low.  Our profit stop was hit ahead of our daily target for a modest gain.

I will continue to look for high probability short setups on EURUSD and GBPUSD this week.

Good luck with your trading!