Michael Bridgman

It didn’t take long for the GBPUSD to move down after the U.K. election…another case of “buy the rumour, sell the news”. The GBPUSD had rose as the polls reported… and the markets projected a Conservative majority for Boris Johnson. The good news is, we will have “Brexit watch” for another year, as the markets sort out the economic implications of Boris Johnson’s coordinated U.K. exit from the E.U. I anticipate the GBPUSD will continue being actively traded throughout 2020.

As mentioned earlier this week, a downside target of 1.3000 was a reasonable target this week on any negative sentiment. After the Bank of England today, we waited for the candles to confirm that price was headed lower. We entered first at 1.3086 and our trade was closed at 1.3047 early in the U.S. session overlap. A second entry was taken at 1.3040 as price began moving lower again.

Buyers began entering below 1.3050… ahead of the 1.3000 big figure causing some long lower wicks on the candles. Not wanting to be caught on the wrong side of the market, nor wanting to give back profit from the first entry, we locked in profit waiting for 1.3000 to be tested to close our trade.

This may have been our last trade of the year, but we will be here tomorrow just in case opportunity presents itself. Volumes are down and spreads have widened somewhat… even during normally very active trading hours.

If we’re not back tomorrow… I wish you all a happy, healthy and prosperous 2020. I will be back looking for trades on January 3rd.

Good luck with your trading!

The USDCHF moved higher early in the U.K. session then reversed and a short was taken risking 8 pips for a potential 43 pips to our daily target at .9793.

Price moved down to test its Asian session low and yesterday’s low before descending further in advance of the U.S. open. We protected ourselves by moving our profit stop down, and the first candle of the U.S. session closed our trade.

The GBPUSD moved over 80 pips in a fifteen minute time frame in advance of any economic news releases today. It has now given back all of its post election move to the upside. Expect sellers above 1.3350 and potentially a retest of the 1.3000 figure on further negative sentiment. For a slower but active pair keep your eyes on the EURGBP for set ups.

Keep stops tight and protect yourself from the vagaries of volatility.

Good luck with your trading!

It appears that the U.S. – China trade agreement phase 1 is done, but the details remain vague still. Regardless, the equity markets are up, as is the U.S. 10 year yield today.

A long was found in the USDJPY risking 5 pips for a potential 33 pips to our daily target at 109.76. Price had found a bottom and began to move higher in the U.S. session overlap. As price moved upward, we moved our stop loss to a profit stop and continued to lock in profit as price continued higher.

The markets are very volatile of late, and in my opinion it’s better to lock in profit along the way, than to lose it due to headline or tweet volatility -which we have seen occur many times this year.

The other major boost to the markets (for now) is Boris Johnson’s large Conservative majority in the U.K. The GBP strengthened quickly but trading it particularly after the huge gap was a risky endeavor. With strength it may well test 1.35 again and with weakness it may come back to retest 1.3250 or lower before finding buyers.

Hopefully there will be lots of trades this week before we move into the holidays.

Good luck with your trading!

Currency daily ranges remain subdued as the U.S. – China trade talks on again off again nature has constrained trading. A healthy skepticism for the Phase one signing by year end or even before the U.S. election is warranted. We hope it’s the former and not the latter.

Today as the USD continued to weaken, a long was taken on the NZDUSD risking 8 pips for a potential 38 pips to our daily target at .6565. The setup was nice, but the trade was closed at the end of the U.K. session yielding about half of what we were expecting.

There were also some setups on the GBPUSD and USDJPY, but they too didn’t amount to much. With the current back and forth volatility of the market, I prefer to get out and get back in than to weather retracements and give back the majority of my profit.

On Wednesday as the USD continued lower, a long was taken in the EURUSD risking 8 pips for a potential 35 pips to our daily target at 1.1108. Price began to move higher in advance of the U.S. session and we moved our stop loss to plus two pips, before the opening.

Price moved vertically higher to our target where we exited after protecting our profits along the way. Price subsequently reversed and retraced the move back near the session low – before the U.K. Close.

Tomorrow we have the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll release which if missed by a large margin could bring the USDX down to test its November 1st low and possibly the August low… if further releases disappoint or if tariff talks end the week negatively.

Trade cautiously tomorrow and good luck!

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI beat expectations yesterday and the USD started the week softer and declined further with a disappointing ISM manufacturing PMI for November.

With the weaker USD versus the majors, a long was taken in the EURUSD risking 10 pips for a potential 20 pips to our daily target at 1.1031. It didn’t take long for the pair to rise through our target level and we were able to stay in the trade moving our profit stop up as the USD sank further.

The pair remains range bound between 1.0980 and 1.1180 – trading in the direction of USD strength/weakness.

Good luck with your trading!

Over the weekend tension resurfaced with the U.S. – China trade talks once again and the USD weakened on Monday. The market is becoming skeptical of a Phase One signing being imminent and as the rhetoric commences about an increase in tariffs if an agreement is not signed – the market is being cautious of the implications.

Today a short setup was found in the USDJPY risking 8 pips for a potential 44 pips to our daily target at 108.32. The trade moved down to test its Asian session high, before retracing slightly going into the U.S. open. Price then moved lower and tested its Asian session low where buyers entered… and the pair retraced going into the London close and closed our trade just above the 108.50 level.

In the U.K. tonight, the leadership debate will be interesting and the Conservatives currently have the lead over the opposition Labour Party. The market appears to be positioned long the GBP as the Conservative lead grows stronger for Prime Minister Johnson.

Good luck with your trading!